All sources
The full evidence table behind this site. The "use" column shows how each source is used: supported, qualified, or omitted.
| ID | Topic | Source | Evidence type | Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L1 | Current law | HHS 2026 Poverty Guidelines, 91 FR (FR Doc 2026-00755) link | Official data | Support (correct original) |
| L2 | Current law | KFF, Cervantes, Bell, Tolbert, Damico, 'How Many Uninsured Are in the Coverage Gap...' link | Modeled estimate from survey (simulation of eligibility) | Support (correct original) |
| L3 | Current law | Texas HHSC Medicaid for Parents and Caretakers page; KFF coverage gap report link | Official program rules | Support |
| L4 | Current law | U.S. Census Bureau, ACS Brief ACSBR-024 (Health Insurance Coverage by State: 2023 and 2024) link | Official survey data | Support |
| L5 | Current law | CMS Interim Final Rule CMS-2454-IFC, 91 FR 33348 (FR Doc 2026-11094); CMS fact sheet link | Law / regulation | Support (as fact about tradeoff) |
| L6 | Current law | KFF, 'Health Provisions in the 2025 Federal Budget Reconciliation Law' (P.L. 119-21) link | Law summary + CBO projections | Support (correct original 'Key Funding Fact') |
| L7 | Current law | CMS Dear State Medicaid Director letter on OBBBA sections 71115/71117 link | Federal guidance | Support (as tradeoff) |
| L8 | Current law | KFF, 'Midterm Election Update: The ACA Marketplaces'; AHA news 2026-01-09 link | Law status | Support with date stamp |
| L9 | Current law | Texas Legislature Online bill history; TLC Dates of Interest link | Official record | Support (label as historical) |
| L10 | Public finances | Federal Register FMAP notice for Oct 1, 2026-Sep 30, 2027 link | Official data | Support |
| L11 | Rural/County | Texas Health & Safety Code ch. 61; Texas HHSC CIHCP page; county FY2025-26 chart link | Law / official program | Support |
| L12 | Rural | UNC Sheps Center Rural Hospital Closures list (updated 2025-12-04) link | Descriptive data | Qualify |
| L13 | Rural | CMS press release 2025-12-29; Texas HHSC bulletin (Year 1 budget approved 2026-04-07) link | Official data | Support (as context) |
| L14 | Public finances | Texas HHSC 1115 waiver page; HHSC 'Future of the UC program' (rev. 05/2024, hosted by THA) link | Official projection | Qualify |
| H1 | Health outcomes | Miller, Johnson, Wherry, 'Medicaid and Mortality: New Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data', QJE 136(3):1783-1829, doi:10.1093/qje/qjab004 link | Causal (difference-in-differences) | Support |
| H2 | Health outcomes | Borgschulte & Vogler, 'Did the ACA Medicaid expansion save lives?' J Health Econ 72:102333, doi:10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102333 link | Causal design (DiD with matching) | Support (cite range, not single number) |
| H3 | Health outcomes | Sommers, Baicker, Epstein, NEJM 2012;367:1025-34, doi:10.1056/NEJMsa1202099 link | Association (DiD) | Qualify |
| H4 | Health outcomes | Black, Hollingsworth, Nunes, Simon, NBER w25568 'The Effect of Health Insurance on Mortality: Power Analysis...' link | Causal attempt; null, underpowered | Preserve as conflicting |
| H5 | Health outcomes | Baicker et al., 'The Oregon Experiment', NEJM 2013;368:1713-22, doi:10.1056/NEJMsa1212321 link | Causal (randomized lottery, IV) | Support (mental/financial) / Qualify (physical) |
| H6 | Health outcomes | Sommers, Maylone, Blendon, Orav, Epstein, Health Affairs 2017, doi:10.1377/hlthaff.2017.0293 link | Quasi-experimental (DiD) survey | Support |
| H7 | Health outcomes | Kravitz-Wirtz et al., JAMA Netw Open 2020;3(1):e1919066; Saloner et al., JAMA Netw Open 2018;1(4):e181588 link | Association (DiD) | Qualify |
| H8 | Health outcomes | Taubman et al., Science 2014, doi:10.1126/science.1246183; Finkelstein et al., NEJM 2016, doi:10.1056/NEJMp1609533 link | Causal (RCT) | Omit 'reduces ER use' claim |
| F1 | Household finances | Finkelstein et al., 'The Oregon Health Insurance Experiment: Evidence from the First Year', QJE 127(3):1057-1106 link | Causal (RCT) | Support |
| F2 | Household finances | Brevoort, Grodzicki, Hackmann, J Public Econ 187:104203, doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104203 link | Causal (DiD) | Support |
| F3 | Household finances | Hu, Kaestner, Mazumder, Miller, Wong, J Public Econ 163:99-112 link | Causal (synthetic control) | Qualify |
| F4 | Household finances | Zewde, Eliason, Allen, Gross, AJPH 2019;109(10):1379-83, doi:10.2105/AJPH.2019.305230 link | Association (DiD) | Qualify (use as 'associated') |
| F5 | Household finances | Hudson & Moriya, Health Affairs 2017;36(9):1643-51, doi:10.1377/hlthaff.2017.0347 link | Quasi-experimental | Support |
| W1 | Work & business | Baicker, Finkelstein, Song, Taubman, AER P&P 104(5):322-28, doi:10.1257/aer.104.5.322 link | Causal (RCT) | Support ('no strong evidence of reduced work') |
| W2 | Work & business | Garthwaite, Gross, Notowidigdo, QJE 2014, doi:10.1093/qje/qju005 link | Causal (DiD) | Preserve as unfavorable |
| W3 | Work & business | Leung & Mas, Industrial Relations 57(2):206-234, doi:10.1111/irel.12207; Kaestner et al., JPAM 36(3):608-42, doi:10.1002/pam.21993 link | Causal (DiD) | Support |
| W4 | Work & business | Sommers, Goldman, Blendon, Orav, Epstein, NEJM 2019;381:1073-82, doi:10.1056/NEJMsr1901772 link | Quasi-experimental (triple-diff survey) | Support |
| W5 | Work & business | Georgia Budget & Policy Institute, 'Pathways to Coverage: Year 3' (Aug 2026) link | Descriptive (state data compiled by advocacy group) | Qualify (secondary) |
| R1 | Rural healthcare | Lindrooth, Perraillon, Hardy, Tung, Health Affairs 37(1):111-20, doi:10.1377/hlthaff.2017.0976 link | Association (DiD) | Support (as 'associated') |
| R2 | Rural healthcare | Blavin, JAMA 2016;316(14):1475-83, doi:10.1001/jama.2016.14765; Dranove, Garthwaite, Ody, Health Affairs 2016, doi:10.1377/hlthaff.2015.1344 link | Association (DiD) | Support |
| R3 | Capacity | Texas Medical Association physician surveys (2012, 2016), as reported by PolitiFact (2017-04-07); TMA page texmed.org/Template.aspx?id=43908 returned 404 on 2026-10-24 link | Survey (low response rate) | Qualify (dated) |
| S1 | Medical spending | Baicker et al. NEJM 2013 (Oregon) link | Causal (RCT) | Support (honest framing) |
| S2 | Medical spending | Cohen, Neumann, Weinstein, NEJM 2008, doi:10.1056/NEJMp0708558 link | Review | Omit as blanket claim |
| P1 | Public finances | Sommers & Gruber, Health Affairs 2017, doi:10.1377/hlthaff.2016.1666 link | Association (DiD) | Qualify (period) |
| P2 | Public finances | Markell & Meiselbach, Health Serv Res 2024, doi:10.1111/1475-6773.14331 link | Association (DiD) | Support |
| P3 | Public finances | Legislative Budget Board staff estimate (Mar 4, 2013); HB 3376 fiscal note (Apr 16, 2013) link | Official projection | Qualify (historical) |
| P4 | Public finances | Fritz, Pitts & Pitts (Sept 2020); Dague & Hughes, Texas A&M Bush School (Sept 2020), both for Episcopal Health Foundation link | Projection | Qualify (sponsor, dated) |
| E1 | Broader economy | Ayanian, Ehrlich, Grimes, Levy, NEJM 2017, doi:10.1056/NEJMp1613981 link | Modeled (REMI-type economic model) | Qualify (label as model) |
| E2 | Public integrity | CMS FY2025 Improper Payments Fact Sheet link | Official data | Support (accurate framing) |
| E3 | Implementation | KFF unwinding analysis; Texas Tribune 2023-12-14; ProPublica link | Official state data compiled | Support |
| E4 | Crowd-out | Frean, Gruber, Sommers, J Health Econ 2017, doi:10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.02.004 link | Causal (simulated eligibility DiD) | Qualify |
| W6 | Work & business | Hamersma & Kim, 'The Effect of Parental Medicaid Expansions on Job Mobility', J Health Econ 28(4):761-70 (2009) link | Causal (policy variation) | Qualify |
| W7 | Work & business | Kyung Min Lee, 'Health Insurance and the Supply of Entrepreneurs: Evidence from the ACA Medicaid Expansion', Academy of Management Proceedings 2019 link | Causal claim (DiD, IV) in an abridged conference paper | Qualify (conflicting) |
| W8 | Work & business | Lee & Winters, 'State Medicaid Expansion and the Self-Employed', Small Business Economics 59:925-954 (2022), doi:10.1007/s11187-021-00559-5 link | Association/causal (DiD) | Support (coverage for small-business owners) / Omit 'creates entrepreneurs' |
| C1 | Families & caregivers | McMorrow, Gates, Long, Kenney, Health Affairs 36(5):808-18 (2017), doi:10.1377/hlthaff.2016.1650 link | Association/causal (DiD on eligibility) | Support |
| C2 | Families & caregivers | Brown, Ravallion et al., JAMA Netw Open 2019;2(6):e195529, doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.5529 link | Association (ecological DiD) | Qualify (association) |
| C3 | Children | Hudson & Moriya, Health Affairs 2017;36(9):1643-51 (see F5) link | Association (DiD) | Support (duplicate of F5 for children section) |
| CHW1 | Alternatives / CHWs | Kangovi, Mitra, Grande, Long, Asch, Health Affairs 2020;39(2):207-13, doi:10.1377/hlthaff.2019.00981 link | Causal RCT + cost model | Qualify: supports CHWs as a complement; not used as a core site argument |
| R4 | Capacity | MACPAC, 'Physician Acceptance of New Medicaid Patients: Findings from the NEHRS' (June 2021) link | Federal survey data | Support (with dates) |
| WT1 | West Texas | U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Health Insurance Estimates (SAHIE) 2024, county file; regions = Texas Comptroller High Plains (41 counties) + West Texas (30 counties) link | Official model-based estimates | Support (cite county MOE) |
| WT2 | West Texas | CMS Provider Data Catalog, Hospital General Information (modified 2026-07-22); county lists per Texas Comptroller regions link | Official administrative data (our count) | Qualify (proxy for distance) |
| WT3 | West Texas | HRSA Health Professional Shortage Areas, primary care detail file (BCD_HPSA_FCT_DET_PC), status 'Designated' link | Official administrative data (our count) | Support (state type of designation) |
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