Evidence by topic
Each page summarizes the strongest available studies and official data, labels the type of evidence, and states its limits. Findings that complicate the case for expansion are included.
Evidence labels: Strong design Association Projection Official data
Health
Mortality, mental health, chronic disease, and what did not change.
Household finances
Medical debt, catastrophic bills, credit, and evictions.
Work & small business
Employment, job lock, self-employment, and work requirements.
Families & children
Parents, children's coverage, and family stability.
Rural & West Texas
Uninsured rates, hospitals, and shortage areas in the High Plains and West Texas.
Hospitals & doctors
Uncompensated care, hospital finances, and physician participation.
Public budgets
State, county, and federal ledgers, and total medical spending.
Economy & program integrity
Jobs estimates, crowd-out, improper payments, and renewals.
Show the chart data as a table
| State | Uninsured % | Margin of error | Expanded Medicaid? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 19.1 | ±0.3 | No |
| Oklahoma | 14.4 | ±0.4 | Yes |
| Georgia | 14.0 | ±0.3 | No |
| Florida | 13.7 | ±0.2 | No |
| Nevada | 13.7 | ±0.5 | Yes |
| New Mexico | 13.4 | ±0.6 | Yes |
| Arizona | 12.9 | ±0.4 | Yes |
| Alaska | 12.5 | ±0.7 | Yes |
| Wyoming | 12.5 | ±0.9 | No |
| Mississippi | 12.1 | ±0.5 | No |
| Arkansas | 11.3 | ±0.4 | Yes |
| Tennessee | 11.3 | ±0.3 | No |
Sources for this page
- U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Health Insurance Estimates (SAHIE) 2024, state file (2026-08). https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/sahie/datasets/time-series/estimates-acs/sahie-2024-csv.zip [evidence SAHIE-ST]
- KFF, coverage gap analysis (list of the 10 states that have not expanded Medicaid) (2026-07-27). https://www.kff.org/medicaid/how-many-uninsured-are-in-the-coverage-gap-and-how-many-could-be-eligible-if-all-states-adopted-the-medicaid-expansion/ [evidence KFF-STATUS]
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